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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.